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Sweden’s September election will test what happens to anti-immigration populism after immigration itself has fallen sharply. The Sweden Democrats helped push the country from one of Europe’s most welcoming migration regimes to one of its most restrictive. Now the party must persuade voters that the remaining problem is not new arrivals, but migrants who are already settled in Sweden.

That shift matters well beyond Stockholm. Populist parties across Europe have built support by promising to close borders. Sweden offers an early look at whether they can retain that support when tougher policies work, public anxiety subsides and the political argument moves from controlling entry to encouraging departure.

From restriction to repatriation

The Sweden Democrats became the largest party on the Swedish right in 2022. They stayed outside the cabinet but gave parliamentary support to a government led by Ulf Kristersson’s mainstream Moderate Party, gaining substantial influence over migration policy. Kristersson now promises them ministerial posts if the coalition wins again on September 13th.

Sweden’s migration numbers have already changed dramatically. Annual net migration dropped from a peak of 117,000 in 2016 to 12,000 last year. The centre-left Social Democrats began the tightening during Europe’s refugee crisis, restricting asylum and strengthening border checks. Under Kristersson, however, the emphasis has shifted from making Sweden less attractive to newcomers toward getting some existing residents to leave.

Since January, refugees who return to their country of origin have been eligible for as much as SKr350,000 (\$36,000), nine times the value of a comparable British programme. Officials expect only about 600 people a year to accept the offer, but the Sweden Democrats want to expand it to naturalised citizens and make welfare less generous. The government has also passed a “good behaviour” law that permits deportation for infractions such as unpaid debts, tightened family-reunification rules and stopped granting permanent residence to refugees. The Sweden Democrats would go further by converting some existing permanent permits into temporary ones.

The politics of a fading grievance

The party’s central challenge is that its signature issue is losing urgency. Its support remains near 20%, but only 23% of Swedes identified integration as a leading concern last year, down from 54% in 2015. The Social Democrats hope this change will let them win back voters who accepted tougher borders but dislike giving the populist right a place in government.

The governing coalition is also discovering the practical and moral limits of its agenda. Public anger forced it to soften rules that had led to the deportation of teenagers raised in Sweden. Employers complain that restrictions make it harder to recruit foreign talent, while the Liberal Party, another coalition member, opposes revoking permanent residency. With fewer arrivals dominating the news, voters may also pay more attention to the Sweden Democrats’ more inflammatory rhetoric.

The election therefore poses a broader question for Europe’s populist right. Stopping migration is a policy goal with a measurable endpoint; preserving political momentum afterward requires finding a new source of grievance. Sweden’s populists are trying to do that by turning from border control to repatriation. Voters will decide whether this feels like the logical completion of a successful policy or an escalation that has gone too far.