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This summary covers The Economist’s June 20th, 2026 Science & technology article listed as The biggest El Niño ever? and published under the headline Boy problems.

A new El Niño has begun, and climate forecasters think it could be the strongest in the modern record. The article’s warning is not simply that the planet may become hotter in 2027. El Niño redistributes heat and rainfall around the world, so an exceptionally powerful event could turn existing drought, hunger and conflict into overlapping humanitarian crises.

A Pacific Shift With Global Reach

El Niño begins when changing winds draw unusually warm surface water into the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, especially the region that scientists call Niño 3.4. The phenomenon was named centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed that anchovies periodically disappeared around Christmas as warmer water pushed the fish south.

Scientists measure an El Niño by comparing sea-surface temperatures in Niño 3.4 with their long-run average. A rise of more than 2 degrees C counts as strong. Forecasts for late 2026 and early 2027 point to warming above 2.5 degrees C and possibly as high as 3 degrees C. That would exceed the 2.5-degree peak reached in 1982-83, the highest in 75 years of observations.

The warm water matters far beyond the fishing grounds off Peru. The Pacific is so large, and the atmosphere so interconnected, that El Niño rearranges heat and moisture across the planet. It can bring drought to one region, torrential rain to another and increase the risk of heatwaves and wildfires elsewhere.

Climate Change Raises the Stakes

El Niño is a natural cycle rather than a product of climate change, but the two reinforce each other. The strong events of 1997-98 and 2015-16 helped make 1998 and 2016 record-hot years at the time. The current global record was set in 2024, when average temperatures reached 1.55 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Climate models suggest that the new El Niño could help push 2027 higher still.

Its regional effects are less predictable than the global temperature boost, but previous events show where the danger may be greatest. Strong El Niños have brought destructive droughts to eastern and southern Africa, Central America and Oceania, ruining crops and pasture and forcing people to migrate in search of food. The weaker 2023-24 event was associated with southern Africa’s worst drought in more than a century.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation now sees southern Africa and the Sahel as especially vulnerable. Somalia may face drought through October followed by heavy rain through December. That sequence is not necessarily relief: water can run off parched ground instead of soaking in, producing floods after months of scarcity. Central America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia also face heightened drought risk.

Preparation Cannot Wait

Weather shocks become disasters when they strike societies that are already under pressure. Many of the countries in El Niño’s path are dealing with war, displacement and chronic hunger. Fertiliser shortages caused by the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have added another constraint just as farmers need supplies for their next planting cycles. European officials already warn of possible humanitarian emergencies across parts of Africa and in Ecuador, Haiti and Venezuela.

There are practical ways to reduce the damage. Farmers can plant drought-tolerant seeds, while governments and aid agencies can store water and animal feed before conditions deteriorate. But those measures require lead time. The article’s final point is therefore less about forecasting a record than acting on an early warning: the exact shape of El Niño remains uncertain, yet the cost of waiting until droughts and floods arrive could be enormous.